First Covid19 case reported in India on 30th January 2020, in Thrissur Kerala. Since then we have seen it multiplying and gone through some of the worst of times in century. Word "lockdown" was never so important, but now it seems so obvious that everyone is talking about. The term "quarantine" was a jargon specifically used for killing virus in our computers and see how meaningful it is now a days. Work from home is new normal. This pandemic started from Wuhan, China and brought whole world to it's knees. Death toll rose to 724 thousands and effected 19.5 million people worldwide, and counting continues till we have a clinically tested vaccine available.
Now let's have a look on world economic disruption due to Novel Corona virus. IMF says the global economy will shrink by 3% this year which certainly points to upcoming global recession. Unemployment in major economies have risen on average of 4-5%, France and Italy tops the list with 9-10%. Tourism, Hospitality and airlines business have come to a stand still and have seen enormous layouts. A recent report on airlines business says " the airline traffic which we have seen in the past will be a history, the upcoming generations will see the images of it with a element of surprise".
India faced major slowdown in economy , millions of stranded workers moved to their villages due to unemployment and lack of future job perspective. All the machines stopped, some auto major seen zero sales figure in month of March and April. Many small business and traders went bankrupt or became hand to mouth.India's economic growth for the fiscal year 2020 went as low as 3.1 % , which was anticipated at 6% in January 2020. After announcement of economic relief package in May month, India's GDP even more downgraded. CRISIL says the economy will take steep shrink what we have never seen since independence. An estimate pointed India lost 32000 crore Rs per day during Lockdown1, which lasted for 21 days. Supply-chain broke even staples were not available in daily household, all inventory went dry. Unemployment went as high as 26% in the month of April. Indian stock market reported their worst losses on 23rd March 2020.
Indian government efforts
Let's look at positive side of after-covid effects. In lockdown, the government was left to choose between two options " either save life or economy", but our PM Mr. Modi played it smartly - called complete lockdown when it was needed and announced severe relief packages afterwards to energize the economic wheel. A recent Poll shows 64% people agreed "saving lives was need of the hour" and 36% believed "restarting the economy was priority".
Modi and his team tried all ways to bring economy back to normal, with announcement of world's largest economic relief package of 20 lakh crore. In his speech Mr. Modi coined a term Aatmnirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India). All the banks also joined hands with government by providing Loan Moratorium. Which helped middle class to cope up with financial problems due to pandemic. RBI restructured Reverse Repo Rate due to which loans became cheaper and affordable for public. Slowly e-commerce sells are reaching pre-covid level and with a hope of employment also attain that level again. From start of July many indicators shows positive sign for economic recovery. In July end the cabinate passed National Educational Policy 2020, with a aim of boosting economy. An international firm, Arthur D Little suggested a W-shaped economic recovery for India inc. Although many economic surveys expect a V-shaped recovery.
We must agree that we learnt a lot during lockdown, specially leading a healthy life by practicing Yoga, exercise and strict diet. Air-quality improved tremendously, which was a major problem in metropolitan cities. Hopefully, in next 6 months everything will be back to normal.
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